2022.01.26 21:29 Kartoffelein Meet Homusol, my support class homunculus monster!
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2022.01.26 21:29 RJCa5533 Any tips?
Hey guys, I’m new to this Reddit. I’m looking to do a Cummins swap on a ‘99 Suburban 2500. Any tips or advice? Recommend websites or parts sources? Thanks.
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2022.01.26 21:29 ajfekrm19 TW: I have a crush and its making me want to commit
I've been seconded to a position at work in a new office the past two months. I met the most amazing person there. We had excellent chemistry, I find her super attractive and I was feeling a hint of reciprocation but with a wall between us for some reason. Classic BPD, I fell HARD. Obsessive thoughts 24/7 about where she is, what shes doing, and what shes thinking about. I cant turn my brain off.
On my last day, I find out (through asking her a subtle yet pointed question) she has a partner already. We're both females so it's always hard to know whether someone views you as a 'friend' or something else.
I felt a split moment of rage (which I didn't show), then got on with things. I told her at the end of the day I liked her because I HATE not saying things (impulsive) and that I didn't expect her to do anything with that information, I just wanted her to know. I then walked out and haven't seen her since (this was a week and a half ago).
I feel like a junkie coming down from a high. The level of intensity I'm feeling makes me want to KMS. Its a mix between jealously and rage (her partner), disappointment (for her not telling me earlier and me having to ask something where she was forced to answer) and longing/pure love (for her).
How can I get past this? I feel like she was 'perfect' for me. I'm trying to tell myself it was the splitting talking but we were just SO compatible its not funny. She's the first person where I've actually been able to reign in my meltdowns because I cared about how she felt too much.
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2022.01.26 21:29 tylerspam17 need gifts 2365 4825 1993
2022.01.26 21:29 AM_Redox Monty
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2022.01.26 21:29 tarzank [NG] [BL 65] [LtFV] [password:larry] [waiting at fog door]
2022.01.26 21:29 seftche728 My best NKD yet
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2022.01.26 21:29 Regayov Best of two bad options
Thought experiment. Would you rather:
2022.01.26 21:29 ZdlordBrasil Appetite for Destruction
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2022.01.26 21:29 arun_bala Can you name one major Hollywood film or show that actually shows a full vagina?
2022.01.26 21:29 I_am_a_Toaster_Toast Holy Shid is that a History Matters reference??!1!! 😳😳😳
2022.01.26 21:29 JesusUnoWTF The design on my beer can is a sticker covering the design of a different flavor of beer
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2022.01.26 21:29 InfiniteRest5594 からくりホテルからの脱出 v1.0.0 [NSZ]
Seek, and you shall find.
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2022.01.26 21:29 Haunting-Contract-38 Seeing a bunch of these guys in my backyard any idea what it might be? San Diego,CA.
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2022.01.26 21:29 TaiKorczak Did you know that in 2006 King of the Hill was awarded by the Media Action Network for Asian Americans for its "Positive Portrayal of Asian Americans"?
2022.01.26 21:29 whitestone0 Inside Abandoned Bus pt. 2 [OC]
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2022.01.26 21:29 LilyMcAllister $1 OFF COUPON On Crofter’s Organic Fruit Spread. Expires April 10.
$1 OFF COUPON On Crofter’s Organic Fruit Spread. Expires April 10. https://croftersorganic.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Crofters-Dollar-Coupon-CDN-2022.pdf
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2022.01.26 21:29 halfinchpinch Something satisfying about grilling when it's single digits F
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2022.01.26 21:29 ebgood Found Photos
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2022.01.26 21:29 aaron_j_gonzalez To the people who talked with us before Ghosts set
Thanks for complimenting my mask. Thanks for making my first Ghost experience one to remember. To the girl sitting in front of us with the ghost shirt, I hope your first Ghost concert was as good for you as it was for me. To the man accompanying her, your contacts absolutely rocked! Your rings were super rad too! I loved your energy and the conversation we had before they started performing.
If you're reading this, ROCK ON! And to anyone else, I can understand why you love this band so much. It was such an incredible experience, and I can't even put into words how much I want to do it again. I love all you lovely people, and all you Ghost fans, and the two Ghost fans in particular who talked with us after Volbeat's set. Thank you to this whole community.
In nomine Patris, et Filii, et Spiritus Sancti...NEMA!
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2022.01.26 21:29 Clean-Classroom1036 I just got my iPhone 13 pro max yesterday and one of my cameras has like a screen protector looking bubble. Anyone else have something similar to this?
2022.01.26 21:29 MillennialBets Smooth Brain Story Time: DD for $CLF
Date: 2022-01-26 12:44:33, Author: u/EyeAteGlue, (Karma: 8099, Created:May-2020)
SubReddit: WallStreetBets, DD Click Here
DAVE 9.48(4.41%)|CLF 16.26(-3.5%)|CME 220.22(-0.71%)|PAYS 2.25(6.64%)|
Story Time: I got this wrinkled brained friend who's been telling me some things about rolling twelve month earnings per share (EPS), big maths stuff, gave me a headache. As I was trying to understand it I looked up to one of reddit's greatest heroes and decided to get some post nut clarity... so I drove to my local Wendy's for a drive-thru Dave's Special. Dave is a local autist who hangs out behind the dumpster. Very convenient for me to get a frosty and give him a frosty to the face for 20 bucks.
While there Dave told me that he's moving on to a new job. Apparently SIR_JACK_A_LOT was hiring for a tissue boy to wipe him off a couple times a day and Dave got the job for his well known brand of service. Pays 100k/year!
Dave said he still has a problem though: his wife said he could come home once he was earning 100k+/year salary, and he said he was now that he got this new job! But his wife's boyfriend said "nah that doesn't count yet. show me the money. ain't looking like you got that 100k this past 2021 year. come back at the end of 2022 when you actually have that 100k/year trend and we'll talk again, alright champ?". Dave started doing the math and in the past twelve months of 2021 he only pulled in 25k for the whole year, damn. I mean Dave is a man of discipline, many of you know how sore your hands, mouth, and knees get to try to pull in those kind of numbers working behind Wendy's dumpster. I believe in Dave's work ethics though. If Jack says he's going to pay Dave 100k/year starting in 2022 I damn sure believe Dave is going to be earning 100k in 2022, and not revert back to the 25k/year rate of earnings he did in 2021.
Is it fair to look at Dave as a 25k/year common Wendy's dumpster autist, or would you look at Dave as a 100k/year premium towel boy for the world's most prolific nutter?
If you could, would you buy calls on Dave's future earning potential?
Moral of the Story: Dave is $CLF, and Dave's wife and wife's bf are the analysts. They look at $CLF as what it used to be and not what it has currently transformed into, much the same way they look at Dave when he was earning 25k/year instead of going forward when he's set to have a 100k/year income. $CLF used to only sell raw materials downstream but made some major acquisitions and selling an integrated product upstream, it's a completely different margin model (For comparison they sold 3.9x as much revenue in Q3 2021 versus Q3 2020, that's the level of transformation similar to Dave's transformation).
For Dave every 3 months he will be earning 25k on his 100k/year salary. That means every quarter Dave will be earning just as much as he did the entire previous year. So every quarter that goes by Dave's wife and wife's boyfriend can respect him more and more as a changed man. He's showing that consistent earnings every quarter and after 4 quarters he'll hit that 100k and really proving he's a six figure type of man. Much in the same way $CLF is going through that now: in the past 4 quarters there is still a remnant of the old days where they really weren't earning much, that quarter is really diluting their EPS and thus the analyst are not giving them the respect they deserve until the new quarters show the new picture. Thus on 2/11/22 $CLF will be reporting 2021 Q4 earnings which has one of those major roll off events (old quarter of business rolling off) that spells a much stronger picture for them.
$CLF currently trades around $16 to $17, based on EPS updates it gets more fairly valued at $30 (check Wrinkled Brain stuff in the next section for the math). Heck even if you use a 4.0x PE (for Q4 year end) multiple it should still be trading at $24.
This could take some time to get there though. But vertical call spreads make this a great play when you need a little bit of patience. I'm only somewhat autistic so I'm holding $10C/$30C debit call spreads for Jan 2023 expiration with the aim to basically 2.3x my money there (even if it's only 2.3x that's a whole lot better than some of these negative returns many are posting). Shares probably aren't bad either if you're looking at a safer play. FDs at your own risk. If I were more autistic I'd probably just narrow the spread and move the date to Mar 2022 for full risk/reward to apply right after earnings for a quick 2x banger. But again I'm not that autistic and don't think you should be that autistic either.
Just remember this is rational math, and if the market is irrational your best bet is to apply the rational math and be able to find a way to stay in it until it gets rational again. If you're looking short term just accept you're gambling, and that's okay too, but be accountable for your own gambling.
TLDR: $CLF could hit $30 based on wrinkled brain EPS math. Debit Call Spreads are my choice to play. Long term play alternative with low valuation. For all you asking "where should I put my money now that I'm scared of high valuation" this is your answer.
Wrinkled Brain Stuff (Boring Stuff): I don't want the normal folks that are aspiring autists to feel left out. There's a few here that have some wrinkles on their brains but still trying to sniff enough glue to get it smoothed out. However if you still got them wrinkles I'm just going to set aside some of this code block snippet for you so others don't have to suffer through this boring stuff:
Wrinkled Brain Summary: -------- Assumption is that the $CLF price targets are still low due to the fact that their trailing twelve month (TTM) earnings (P/E) are being diluted by previous environments in Q4 2020 that no longer apply. The rolloff event at Q4 2021 earnings on 2/11/22 will spell a major change of analyst price target updates. Current TTM EPS is at $3.88, but rolling off 2020 Q4 and replacing with a 2021 Q4 that is as good or better than 2021 Q3 we will see a new TTM EPS at $5.96. Applying a 5x P/E to the two EPS targets: A. Current TTM EPS => $3.88 TTM EPS x 5.0PE = $19.40 Price Target B. Anticipated TTM EPS => $5.96 TTM EPS x 5.0PE = $29.80 Price Target As you can see the current TTMS EPS is where we're seeing to be fairly close to the $CLF current trading range (Around $19 to low $20s). Once the rolloff event happens on 2/11/22 and we see the new anticipated TTM EPS kick in the analyst will have to update their Price Target models and I anticipate we start seeing $CLF catch up to trading towards the $29.80 price target trading range. Wrinkled Brain Math Details: -------- 1. Current TTM EPS: 2020 Q4 EPS = $0.19 2021 Q1 EPS = $0.07 2021 Q2 EPS = $1.35 2021 Q3 EPS = $2.27 TTM EPS = $3.88 4.0x PE => $3.88 x 4.0 = $15.52 Stock Target (severely undervalued PE) 5.0x PE => $3.88 x 5.0 = $19.40 Stock Target (conservative PE) 6.0x PE => $3.88 x 6.0 = $23.28 Stock Target (more generous PE) 2. Starting on 2/11/22 - Anticipated TTM EPS: (2020 Q4 "rolls off") 2021 Q1 EPS = $0.07 2021 Q2 EPS = $1.35 2021 Q3 EPS = $2.27 2021 Q4 EPS = $2.27 (assuming as good or better than 2021 Q3, recent earnings from other has shown this is likely going to be about 10% higher then Q3 actually) TTM EPS = $5.96 4.0x PE => $5.96 x 4.0 = $23.84 Stock Target (severely undervalued PE) 5.0x PE => $5.96 x 5.0 = $29.80 Stock Target (conservative PE) 6.0x PE => $5.96 x 6.0 = $35.76 Stock Target (more generous PE) Other Wrinkled Brain Thoughts: --------- A. I'm assuming 2021 Q4 is as good or better than 2021 Q3 because $CLF primarily gets it revenue as an effect of HRC pricing whether contracted or spot pricing. Spot prices are seen in the CME commodities future board which has shown that the Oct/Nov/Dec months showing the highest prices it has ever seen at nearly $2000/ton. Contracts also renewed to higher average prices so assumption is those are also higher than Q3 and before. Earnings from other peer groups have shown it should be around 10% higher than Q3 if we're using their reports as a basis. B. The 2020 Q4 and 2021 Q1 EPS are understandably low because $CLF completely transformed their business then. Just like Dave they moved onto a new era of their business that instead of just selling downstream as only Iron Ores they acquired large US Steel manufacturing capabilities and brought those on only after 2020 Q4, hence why they do not reflect. 2021 Q1 also had to account for a large amount of the acquisition cost and hence reflects poorly on the earnings. However 2021 Q2 and onwards are validation of that integrated earnings potential reflecting in this new era for the company. C. There are a lot more fundamental DD all around but I just wanted to highlight the EPS math today, and also tell a story about Dave, a personal friend of mine.
I'm going to get a lot of downvotes or confused looks for posting about wrinkled brain stuff here, especially while the market has been bleeding as well. But also from time to time we need to get back to the wrinkle brain stuff between the memes to try to interpret what analysis logic would look like if the market ever gets rational again - be ready for when it's done with the emotional reactions.
Thanks for bearing through this TED talk with me, there's a tub of Elmer's in the back if you want to go back to eating paste with me.
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2022.01.26 21:29 lisa_joyce How's your hump day?
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2022.01.26 21:29 Axmo_Deus Have you ever heard of the island of the dolls? Well, what if each doll was the spirit of a miscarried child… Film coming Feb. 1.
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2022.01.26 21:29 BiggestBoah88 Every Time...
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